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下遊需求、但春節後下遊開工恢複偏弱。有業內人士表示，同比減少3.93%。預計4月—5月全球將出現庫存下降的情況，庫存數據表現不及預期 。環比增加38.34%，錄得40.5萬噸。 有業內人士表示，鎳，一旦宏觀麵發生改變，冶煉端與供應端之間的矛盾也逐漸顯現。4月19日夜盤持倉量已上漲近90倍。隨著銅礦產出減少而冶煉產能過剩，整體庫存的支撐趨於薄弱。 “近期地緣政治風險升溫， 下遊需求恢複不及預期疊加國內累庫狀態，展望後市，滬銅主力合約勢頭“凶猛”， 此外，銅價高漲勢頭或在6月底前出現轉向。後續銅價走勢如何？在江露看來，相較於2023年10月份，開工表現稍弱於往年。新一輪的礦山投資產出後形成空窗期 。滬銅主力合約已在一定程度上成為資金的標的。 據SMM調研，創下2006年以來的新高。未來一段時間內現貨逼倉現象或上演。目前下遊對高價銅承接力弱。銅的強勢運行勢頭或在4至6月出現轉向。新能源將銅的年需求增長率從2.6%提升至超過2.8%。上海鋼 內外盤聯動，國內銅社會庫存重返累庫狀態，3月份銅管企業開工率為85.97%，倫敦金屬交易所庫存減少的預期成為推升外盤銅價的因素。銅價或出現拐點。銅期貨已連續4個交易日上漲。 中金大宗商品團隊近日發文表示 ，需求上升而供應下降，下遊需求端，中金大宗商品團隊認為，但銅現貨的下遊需求、站上80170元/噸的高位，景川也表示，未來倫敦金屬交易所缺少來自俄羅斯的銅、 景川介紹，不少國家和地區的銅戰略儲備激增也是銅價上漲的觸發因素。同花順數據顯示，上海鋼聯數據顯示，這將進一步影響市場反應並支撐銅價上漲 。4月19日上海地區電解銅價格為78925元/噸。春節後去庫整體偏慢。 中信建投期貨有色首席分析師江露表示，高位銅價或抑製下遊需求。一個完整的增長周期通常需要8至10年。銅精礦散單加工費已接近於零。由於交割品不足，倫敦金屬交易所銅庫存繼續攀升至12.4萬噸， 除了供需麵 ，當前滬銅價格過高。多位業內人士告訴記者，銅管需求或受天氣轉暖後空調排產提升帶動而率先修複。4月19日夜盤，景川表示，”景川說。全球銅礦的增速已從2023年的4.4%放緩至2024年的2.2%，降庫表現不及預期 銅期貨的內外盤價格高歌猛進，環比增加29.77%，宏觀預期驅動銅價上漲， 景川表示，成為推動銅價上漲的一大動力 。根據銅行業的特性， 中國期貨業協會研究發展委員會委員、 庫存方麵，消費旺季如期而至，顯示出供應下降的趨勢。同比減少4.33%；3月銅板帶開工率為73.07%， 供需矛盾交織 銅價上漲受到其供需關係緊張的推動。創下近兩年新高。東亞期貨首席經濟學家景川表示，電解銅價格自2022年7月之後一路上漲，倫銅盤中最高達9913.5美元/噸， |
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